Symposium Info – Seeking Stability in the Gray Zone / Eyck Freymann

【Panel II – Democratic Resilience and National Security】

Topic: Seeking Stability in the Gray Zone

Presenter: Dr. Eyck Freymann / Hoover Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University

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Taiwan is more economically and strategically important to the allied democracies today than it was even a year ago, thanks to AI.

Whatever the U.S. government says and does, it has an abiding structural interest in keeping the Indo-Pacific free and open.

For this reason, China is unlikely to test the United States with a full-scale invasion or blockade of Taiwan. Taiwan’s future is more likely to be determined by a crisis than by a war.

The United States, Taiwan, and their other friends therefore need a strategy to deter a crisis. Today, they may not be prepared psychologically and institutionally for such a crisis.

On the current trend, China will probably continue to intensify its gray-zone campaign until Washington decides to draw the line, or until the people of Taiwan panic. At this moment, there may be a global economic shock.

Taiwan and its friends must think carefully about these scenarios. They must think about how to restore stability by pushing back against China’s gray zone moves in a controlled and proportionate manner and creating strategic communications channels with Beijing.

The people of Taiwan get a vote in how these scenarios unfold. Taiwan’s friends cannot help the people of Taiwan if they are unable to bear psychological pressure short of war. But they can signal their solidarity by supporting Taiwan’s democracy.

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About Speaker

Eyck Freymann is a Hoover Fellow at Stanford and the author of several books, including most recently Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China.

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